Welcome to the first week of predictions! To preface this article, most models that were built do not give accurate information till around Week 4, so all the bets will be relatively small until then. The reason for this is that the most models were built using cumulative stats, which likely have a lot of noise and meaningless information till enough games have been played.

This article also outlines a lot of important information that will be used in subsequent weeks, so please read carefully.

All bets will be given in terms of unit size (i.e. 1 unit). Each unit is 1-2% of your total bankroll depending on your risk aversity. The way to interpret this is based on your total bankroll you choose to set aside for the year. For example, if your bankroll is 100$ for the season, a 1 unit bet would be 2$ if you choose your unit size to be 2%. It is best to go with a number and stick with it through the season, as changing this may lead to improperly weighted bets through the course of the season. So if you choose 2% now, stick to it through the season. ( 9/12/22, 9:21 PM MST Edit: In hindsight I should have mentioned this, but I will change my personal strategy from 1% to 2% at Week 4 since this is when I know the model to start becoming heavily profitable. My statement above was just intended as a warning to not constantly change the percent of total bankroll you decide 1 unit to be as a reaction to the results of the previous week.)

Also, as your bankroll changes, the bet sizes also change. For example, if after 3 weeks your bankroll grew from 100$ to 120$, a 1 unit bet if you chose 2% as your bet size would go from 2$ to 2.4$. This is very important to scale each bet and maximize returns!

The bets given over the course of the season will be a combination of moneyline, spread, over/under, and parlays, but mostly moneyline picks. Money line will be abbreviated as “ML”. For those that do not know, a parlay is just a combination of multiple picks, and to win that bet every pick must be correct. Lets proceed!

With lots of uncertainty surrounding the first week, the model was only able to single out a few games; I have also manually scaled down the bet size as well since there are so many unknowns in the first week. The article will be also be updated Sunday morning to account for any unexpected injuries, but here are the preliminary picks:

0.1 units: LA Rams ML vs BUF Bills (+115)

0.25 units: SF 49ers -6 (Alternate spread) vs CHI Bears (-125)

0.75 unit: BAL Ravens -7 vs NY Jets (-110)

1 unit: IND Colts -3 (Alternate spread) vs HOU Texans (-270)

0.5 unit: CIN Bengals ML vs PIT Steelers (-265)

0.5 units: Colts -3, Ravens -7 Parlay (+167)

0.25 units: Bengals ML, Colts -3, Ravens -7 Parlay (+268)

Note: No picks given are guaranteed. Bet responsibly and within your limits (and only in states where it is legal!)!