Disclaimer: This is an exciting week, as this is the first week that I will personally be placing bets. To stay on the safer side, I continue to urge readers to wait till Week 4 (or 5 to be safer) but based on previous season data, Week 3 has the potential to be profitable depending on how strong of edges the model has, which this year it does seem to have. I recommend the unit size in week 3-6 to be 1% of your bankroll, and then after week 6 to increase this number (if the model has treated you well, which it will). As you have seen, the model will normally place around 10 units over the course of the week so if you are not comfortable using 10% of your bankroll, then adjust your unit size accordingly. Alas, let’s get underway!

1 unit: Raiders ML (-130)

1 units: Ravens -2.5 (-110)

1.5 units: Ravens ML (-146)

1 unit: Bills -5 (-110)

0.5 unit: Rams -3.5 (-110)

0.85 unit: Rams ML, Bills ML (+200)

0.65 units: Bucs ML (-120)

0.68 units: Broncos ML (+108)

0.5 units: Seahawks ML (-112)

0.2 units: Lions +6 (-110)*

0.5 units: Over 52.5 BUF/MIA (-110)*

0.1 units: Texans ML (+128)

0.05 units: Ravens -3, Lions ML, Broncos ML, Rams ML, Bills ML, Raiders -1.5 (+4823)

*pending injury report, expect update at 9:30 AM MST if any changes

Total Units: 7.88

1:25 MST Update:

0.85 units: Rams, Seahawks, Broncos, Bucs ML (+940)

0.5 units: Jags ML (+190)

Total units: 1.35 units

Monday 5:10 MST Update

1 unit: Cowboys ML (+100)

0.1 units: O 38.5 (-110)

Concession:

The model actually had the Colts winning this week too, but I made the unwise decision to not include it as I thought based on personal bias there was no way it would happen. I even had a witness that watched me run it and told me if it hits I will greatly regret it, which was in fact true. I even was not going to include the Jags for the same reason until I saw the colts won, at which point I decided to just trust the model. Although I lost money personally, I believe it is fair to include this bet in the weekly total, but it is understandable for readers to be skeptical. I have learned my lesson and will not disclude any picks, regardless of hows crazy! I will not include any of the parlay that went with the Colts pick for fairness.

1 unit: Colts ML (+205)