1.5U: Cardinals -3 (-110)

Write up:

I thought some research based analysis that justifies some of the model picks would be a nice addition, so I will start that this week. I will also add my personal rating (which is completely irrelevant and just for fun) on how I feel about each of the model picks.

Deandre Hopkins Is back, and that’s the biggest reason I actually like this with high confidence. The Cardinals offense is anemic without him; since he joined the Cardinals, they average 31 ppg (roughly) with him on the field and only 19 ppg (roughly) without him, so this is a HUGE boost. I think Anderson also will cause some havoc since defenses have no tape on him and will have to focus on Hopkins. Furthermore, Lattimore is out which really increases the likelihood of Hopkins going crazy, as the Saints usually isolate him on the WR1 of other teams.

I also think injuries favor the Cardinals slightly. The Cardinals line if Hudson is out will definitely be a problem but the Saints pass rush and D-line is mediocre. On the other hand, the Cardinals are getting both their cornerbacks back, and so far they have been strangely good at limiting the wr1 every week. Even Kupp was far below his averages when he played the Cardinals! Olave is banged up and returning from a concussion, while both Landry and Thomas are out. If the Cardinals can limit Olave as they have done all season to WR1’s, the Saints are going to have a really hard time as you’re asking mediocre WRs like Trequan Smith and Calloway to consistently get separation. Furthermore, the Cardinals have quite a good rush defense, so if they can key in on Hill and Kamara like the Bengals did, the Saints will need to win via Andy Dalton (or a banged up Winston), Calloway, and Smith, so I like those odds. Obviously as mentioned, Lattimore being out when Hopkins returns also doesn’t help the Saints.

Overall I can see the Cardinals running away with it after forcing the Saints into being 1D early while Hopkins really gets going, so I’m a big fan of this pick.

Personal Rating: 9/10