Based on feedback received so far, the write ups are a great addition to the site. For those that do not care to read you can scroll to the bottom where the picks will be as usual.

Follow my Twitter (@suavybets) for live updates for when any new picks get released.

Starting this week, I will actually have 2 versions of overall model bets. 1 will be directly from the model, and 1 will be scaled based on my opinions on these games based on statistical trends and general knowledge.

For example, let’s say a model bet had 2 units, but my rating on the game was a 5/10. Then I would put 1 unit(2*(5/10)). The excel sheet also has an added sheet for user ratings so this can be adjusted based on user opinions if desired.

Packers (-4.5/ML for parlays)

This is a tough one, as the packers just do not look good, and they are really missing an elite WR who can make separation consistently.

Furthermore, the matchups aren’t great. The packers Oline, although it gets healthier, is going against a very stout pass rush. One of the reasons the offense has stagnated is that Rodgers just doesn’t have time in the pocket, which is something he’s been very accustomed to over his career. One bright spot for the Packers is the Commanders have one of the worst corners in the league through 6 weeks, and Rodgers will surely look that way often. Where I think this game will be won is the running game. The Packers had a players-only meeting and they have already been saying Aaron Jones NEEDS the ball more, and the Commanders have one of the worst defenses vs the run in the league. Expect a balanced approach with the run game setting up play action to lead to Packers offense back on track.

Heineke adds some unpredictability to this game that I’m not a huge fan of, as he might actually be an upgrade to Wentz. I also think the Commanders may pivot to a more balanced offense running the ball more (based on last season when Heineke was starting), which may help this game stay close. Overall, even though this pick makes me slightly queasy. I just can’t see Rodgers, even with a worse team this year, losing his 3rd straight to a consensus bottom 5 team in the NFL.

Overall rating: 5.5/10

Bucs (-13 and ML in parlays)

Panthers have basically thrown the towel in so this one doesn’t need a long write up. The Bucs were slowed by a Steelers team that seemed to be more based on randomness than actual matchups. Panthers do not have a good pass rush so simply cannot see them stopping the Bucs offense. Panthers offense will be transitioning to a new QB and losing their most important player, so their offense will be heavily limited. Even from just a mood perspective, once you trade you best player I think everyone in the locker room knows what’s happening.

So a -13 spread is a little scary, but I expect a large blowout.

Overall rating : 9/10

Ravens (ML)

I think this pick is heavily dependent on the injury report. Mark Andrew’s is basically the Ravens passing attack, so if he is out I highly recommend sitting this game out. Even if he plays his injury may add some unwanted variance here.

This game will be interesting as Cleveland is coming off an embarrassing 26 point loss, and the Ravens are coming off yet another massive choke. The matchups don’t favor the Ravens as much as the spread would suggest, as the Ravens are a bottom 5 team against the rush, which is the only thing the Browns can do. Although last week, the Ravens did a great job limiting Barkley as they basically forced Danny Jones to win the game. A similar gameplan could ensure here. Overall I think the Browns will have some success vs this defense but overall I think the Ravens approach this defensively similar to last week.

On the other side of the ball, the Browns defense is just broken, despite their massive talent. They will also be missing two key defensive pieces in Clowney and Ward. They are bottom 10 in both pass and run defensive looking at DVOA rankings. Lamar should find it easy to make this offense run on all cylinders.

The only real worry here is the Ravens need to show they can close games out, as I am sure the 3 big chokes this season are in everyone’s head. This will be a good test as they should be leading after 3 quarters, so can they actually close out a game properly? I think so.

Rating: 7.5/10

Dolphins (ML)

Before Tua was injured, he was first in YPA and QBR among all QBs. Tyreek is on pace for a record breaking season and he will be facing an absolutely awful Steelers passing defense.

On the other side the Steelers have a very uninspiring offense.

Rating: 8.5/10

Cowboys (ML)

This one honestly just feels like a trap game, I have no logical reason as to why. The Lions are coming off a bye and should be MUCH healthier, their offense was purring early on in the season before they lost their starting center, 2x WR, Swift, and LG. Now, most of those guys should be back and they even have 2 defensive players returning from injury. Dallas has not been great at stopping the run, and if the Lions have a fully healthy O line and Swift, that may cause a little trouble. Dallas also showed what happens last week when their star pass rush goes against an elite o line, and if the Lions can similarly stunt the pressure like the Eagles, there should be no issues moving the ball on offense through the air and ground.

On the other side, Dak is going to be playing his first game in a long time. Obviously returning to play a historically bad secondary is a welcome return, but I could see Dak not being on the same page as his WRs with minimal practice this week, and the WRs having to adjust to a new QB again. It is very possible Dak is fine and ends up torching this historically awful Lions secondary, and if you believe this the Over would be a great bet.

The Lions have also kept it close with some of the better teams in the NFL in the Eagles and Vikings, so I think the Patriots blowout was more of a anomaly. Regardless of the outcome, I am quite sure the game will be close.

Obviously the Cowboys are a far more talented team so maybe I am wrong that this is a trap game, but I am personally heavily scaling down any bets that have this game as there are just too many unknowns (Dak health, Lions new defensive schemes?, Lions health, etc).

Rating: 2.5/10

Raiders (ML)

The Raiders should not be 1-4, they are miles above their record. They kind of remind me of a worse version of the Chargers, as the Chargers always seem to have a much better team on paper then their record indicates when the clock hits Week 17.

They are coming fresh off a bye, and if McDaniels is any good he will take some time to reevaluate their offense, as Adams should be getting 10+ targets a game to optimize this offense according to a lot of experts.

Regardless, Houston is bottom 5 in almost every statistic, and are just not a good football team. Raiders have a top 10 offense is many categories and a defense that’s much better than their record indicates, as they have premier pass rushers that Raiders should win this, especially with an extra week off.

Rating: 8/10

Chargers (-4.5, ML in parlays)

I like the chargers a lot here. I talked about Deandre Hopkins return and his importance to the Cardinals offense, and the numbers tell a very similar story with Kennan Allen. In his career with the chargers his win percentage is .510, but without him the chargers record drops do 0.410! Ever since the inception of the new chargers offense with Mike Williams and Ekeler, Allen will open lots of space for MikeWilliams. Furthermore, Seattle doesn’t have a great defensive line to take advantage of the Chargers offensive line injuries, so this may be one of the first games we see Herbert actually airing it out. Also, Seattle is one of the worst rushing defenses going against a Chargers offense leaning more and more on Ekeler, so if they can succeed to Chargers can chew up the clock and take control of the game.

On the other side, I don’t see the Seahawks being stopped much as the Chargers passing defense is not great, so this game in my opinion will come down to whoever has the most consistent offense that stays on the field the longest, which the Chargers have been really good at. TOP stats heavily favor the Chargers, and also in the red zone the Seahawks are a bottom 10 team going against a top 10 Chargers team in TDs allowed in the redzone, so I expect the Seahawks to score more FGs than TDs here. Overall, I see a game that ends within a score but the Chargers never seemed to uncomfortable.

Rating:7.5/10

Final Picks (Model Only)

The link to the excel sheet can be found here.

This is the “unscaled” bets right from the model:

Final Picks (User Scaling Included)

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