For a reference to any terminology unfamiliar, check out this wiki.

Similarly to last week, I will have a write up for each team the model picks alongside my personal opinion/rating on each pick.

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Jags (Spread)

This should be an interesting but low scoring game. Both teams here have sneaky underrated defenses (Broncos less-so but still) and very, very underwhelming offenses compared to expectations. The Broncos weak link Happens to be their run defense (allowing 112 yards/game on average), so I think the Jags match up well with them. Ettienne will surely be fired up to prove his worth in his first week having full control of this backfield. If the run game works, then play action should also open up. On the other side of the ball, the Broncos offense has been absolutely anemic and given that Hackett claimed that no significant changes will be made until the Bye week, I don’t expect the offense to improve. Wilson might also be dealing with a few nagging injuries (if they are real!). 

Also, I firmly believe Hackett is a fraud, while Pederson has proved to be a decent coach. That edge should not be ignored in a game that will be close. 

Some miscellaneous things go in Jags favor too: being more comfortable with London in general, as they have played there more. Wilson taking negative spotlight probably also doesn’t help the team given their performances. 

Rating: 8/10

Raiders (Spread)

The Raiders are much better of a team than their record indicates. They seem to have tweaked the offense to work primarily around Davante Adams and Jacobs, as they should have done from Week 1. The Saints allow 4.7 yards per rush attempt which is ranked 21st in the league, so Jacobs is likely licking his lips. If the run game can be established as Arizona was able to do last week (averaging 6+ ypr), then the play action should really open this offense up. Furthermore, the Saints injuries again will cause matchup nightmares for them. Without Lattimore and Roby to attempt to lock down Adams, he will have a field day.

The Raiders will be confident coming off a big win that hopefully jumpstarts their season, whereas Andy Dalton just had one of his worst games in a Saints uniform. He continues to be without Michael Thomas and Landry, so the Raiders should be able to key in on Olave (unlike the Cardinals last week..) and mitigate this offense heavily. With 2 offensive linemen out for the Saints going against Maxx Crosby, this is also likely to be a matchup issue for the Saints.

Rating: 9/10

Cowboys (ML parlays)

Well at half time of last week, I was looking like a genius for calling that game a trap. The Cowboys offense was bring corralled by the Lions defense fairly well and Dak was looking very shaky. Luckily for the Cowboys, the Lions star receiver Amon-Ra got concussed on the first Lions drive of the game, and so their offense was severely limited. The Cowboys were able to get off the field on defense and the Lions defense was eventually worn down (see Pollard’s long play towards the end of the game for proof!). This time though, I am not sure they can get away with that, so Dak will have to shake off some of that rust.

The Bears are pretty much the opposite of the Lions, they have a subpar offense and a top defense. Despite last week’s crazy MNF showing, I need to see more proof that the Bears offense is legit. Playing on a short week after grounding and pounding does not fare well for the Bears. Unfortunately for the Bears, the Cowboys defense is not as generous against the run as the Patriots, which is what allowed the entire offense to open up. I expect the Bears offense to come back to earth against an elite defense (and defensive coordinator!). On the other side, the matchups fare well for the Cowboys: he Bears have a great pass defense but a bottom 10 pash rush; to add salt to the wound, they traded one of their top pass rushers. The Cowboys have a decent offensive line so if the Bears can not get to Dak, even an elite secondary will eventually break, especially against a mobile QB like Dak. Overall I still see this being a close game given the Cowboys offense did not seem to be in flow, but the defense should stop up enough to sneak a win out.

Rating: 6.5/10

Eagles (ML Parlays)

This does not require a long write up. The Eagles have one of the most talented rosters in the entire NFL and the Steelers are on the opposite side. The Eagles just added another star player in Quinn.

Although the Steelers have kept it close in the last two weeks, in retrospect it was more because of how atrocious the Bucs are currently, and the Dolphins game was a function of Tomlin being a far superior coach. After the Steelers clearly made adjustments to slow Hill and Waddle screen plays down, the Dolphins coaching staff was unable to respond correctly (or at all really). The Steelers will not have this same advantage against the Eagles. Hurts should have an easy time ripping apart this injured defense as there are just too many options. Sanders and Hurts are a formidable rushing duo, and Smith and Brown make up one of the top receiving cores in the NFL. On the other side, Pickett will go up against a rested Eagles defense that was already elite who just added a star edge rusher. The steelers have an at-best mediocre offensive line, so it might end up being a long day for Pickett.

Rating: 10/10

Titans (Spread)

This one is really confusing me, not sure why the Texans are favorites. They allow a whopping 5.7 yards per rush. Against one of the most dominant running backs in NFL history. That should be enough to prove the Titans will be moving the ball. I get that Willis is making his first full start, and he was not too great during his debut, but I feel that going into a game unexpectedly like that is unfair on him. Either way, he will be much better off in the game with more reps with the 1st team, because if the Texans stack the box to stop Henry, he will have a chance to make a lot of easy 1v1 throws.

Even then, just because it is a rookie, untested quarterback, I will lower the raring slightly.

Rating: 7.5/10

49ers (Spread)

To start off, the 49ers are on a remarkable regular season win streak of 7 vs the Rams. For whatever reason, Shanahan always seems to have McVay’s number. This time, he should have an extra trick up his sleeve as CMC already looked electric in his first week. Now imagine one of the more creative offensive minds gets to make new plays with the most talented dual threat running back in the NFL, who also got to learn the playbook more. The Rams do have a top 10 rushing defense, allowing only 4.2 yards per rush. Because of this, to open up the run game early, Jimmy G will have to make some throws. If he can do this, it should be a good day for the 49ers offense. On the other side, the 49ers have a premier pass rush going against a retooled Rams offensive line that has just been rotten. Bosa and co should have a field day against this line, so I think the 49ers end up winning a close game. My one worry is that Van Jefferson is making his debut this week and may actually open the Rams offense up significantly. There is also some reports that a new RB might start over Henderson. These unknowns may cause the Rams offense to elevate back to levels we have come to expect from Mcvay, so I will lower the raring slightly for these reasons.

Rating: 7/10

Bills (ML Parlays)

The sentiment circulating this game seems to be that this is a huge trap. Rodgers and Brady can’t both continue to be this bad right? That logic has been exposed this season time and time again, and until the Packers re-establish themselves as a good team, nobody should treat them as such. The Bills have an elite pass rush going against a mediocre Packers line. Rodgers has been so accustomed to an elite line that this year it has really showed when he gets pressured quickly. The Bills also have the best run defense in the league, and so if the Packers re forced into being 1 dimensional with no elite weapons for Rodgers, it might be a very long day for him.

On the other side of the ball, after a bye week is usually when the playbook gets enhanced to fix the kinks if any in an offense, so I expect Allen to come out firing on all cylinders. I can envision a scenario in which the Packers come back in garbage time and end up covering the spread, but I do think the Bills will lead for a significant portion of the game.

Rating: 8.5/10

Panthers (ML)

This is an intriguing upset, as the Panhers, similar to the Steelers, seemed to look good more because the Bucs are bad than the Panthers are good. Nonetheless, I think PJ Walker and his mobility add another wrinkle into the offense that has shown definitive improvements. Going away from the Matt Rhule playbook has also definitely helped. Losing CMC, as crazy as it sounds, might be one of those odd cases of addition by subtraction. When a player is so good but an organization has a losing stench and culture surrounding it, sometimes history shows the players just do not step up and expect the star to do it all. A perfect recent example of this is Calvin Johnson, who even said so himself. The Lions offense actually improved statistically and Stafford had one of his most efficient years 2 years after Calvin Johnson retired. Whether this is down to poor coaching, mental aspects from having a player so good around you, or what, I believe this may be the case with the Panthers and CMC.

On the other side the Falcons offense has been very inconsistent and will be going up against a decent defense, so I believe an upset is very possible here.

Rating: 7/10

Washington (ML)

This is the weirdest one of the week to me. A rookie QB who has minimal snaps is coming in and facing a good defense, and Colts are still being favored? Taylor has struggled, the offensive line is not the once dominant force it used to be, and Ellinger may be a complete disaster (or not, who knows). Usually when a team has to switch QBs midseason due to poor play, a head coach firing usually follows as well because the whole team falls apart. Meanwhile, the Commanders are having a mini resurgence. Robinson has definitely brought a marked improvement since his debut to the NFL, and Heineke did prove to be an upgrade over Wentz. I think this is the best upset of the week.

Rating: 9/10

Bills (ML Parlays)

TBC Sunday Night

Bengals (Spread)

TBC Monday

Model Picks

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User Adjusted Picks

Excel Sheet

Week 8 picks

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