The model finally had a very nice week, so hopefully the momentum can keep rolling this week!

Dolphins

On offense, the Dolphins will be licking their lips. The Bears have now lost their 2 best defensive players in Roquan Smith and Quinn (both traded away). A unit that was already quite poor will now be playing without their leaders and have to adjust vs one of the best offenses in the league. Unfortunately for them, the matchups really do not favor them. The Bears are 27th in DVOA against the deep ball, while the Dolphins are, as you could guess, 1st on offense. Tua should have no problems gashing this defense.

On the other side of the ball, I am a little worried though. The Bears offense has finally found some answers, as they have scored 62 pts in the last two weeks against two of the top 10 defenses in the league. Now, they will face a bottom 10 defense, so it will be interesting to see whether Fields can get it done. Luckily for the Dolphins though, this Bears offense is predicated around the run game, while Miami allows 4.2 yards per rush, best for 7th in the league. The matchups overall do seem to favor the Dolphins significantly, but the Bears have been on the up and up. Furthermore, I think the Dolphins are a warm weather team coming to Soldier Field where it will be quite cold today, so there is another factor of variance. Overall, I think it is best to sit this one out as the odds at -200 are just not worth it in my opinion.

Rating: 4/10

Bucs (Spread)

The Rams offensive line can be likened to swiss cheese this year, and that is not good news for Matt Stafford. Bucs have the 3rd best pass rush in the league behind only the Cowboys and 49ers. Rams have played both and were unable to get their offense going in either game due to the pass rush. Stafford will also be without a healthy Kupp this week, who has been pretty much the Rams offense since Stafford arrived. Without him at 100%, this offense may be anemic, especially if the Bucs can get to the Rams early.

On the other side though, the same thing is true. The Bucs offensive line, although it is getting healthier, has not been very good. Luckily for them, the Rams have not had the same elite pass rush we came to expect of them last year, so the Bucs should be able to sneak away here. I feel that is is fair to expect Brady to get back to some level of normalcy, but given the Bucs offensive display, I am still a little skeptical.

User Rating: 7.5/10

Patriots (Spread)

Bill Bellicheck has become famous for tearing up rookie quarterbacks, and today should be no different. The Colts have the most turnovers, average the 30th most points per game, and continue to hugely struggle. Jonathan Taylor being out makes this even worse. Even if they are able to get into the redzone, they will be going up against a top 5 RedZone defense.

The Patriots should be able to stack the box without getting punished as they go up against a rookie quarterback. The Patriots got Mac Jones back and healthy and he looked good last week vs the Jets. They should be able to get a healthy run game going against mediocre Colts defense. Overall, I can easily see this being a blowout.

Rating: 10/10

Cardinals

This game is a rematch, and the Seahawks were able to sneak away with a win in Seattle, but this was without Hopkins. The Cardinals offense has finally gotten some juice since the return of one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. Hopkins has improved a Cardinals offense that was looking for answers, and he will be matched up against a rookie corner. Although Woolen has been good this season, he has not faced a receiver even close to the caliber of Hopkins is.

The Cardinals defense has been severely underrated this year. This could be a game where if the Cardinals are able to stay on the field more on offense, they should be able to win. The Cardinals also allow only 4.2 yards per rush, good for 7th in the NFL. If they can limit Kenneth Walker, they should be able to also limit this offense as a whole.

Also, this divisional matchup has historically been a split. In the last 8 years, only once has a team won both games in this series. Although I do not like using historical statistics to predict future games, this is more indicative of one coach being able to make adjustments based on the loss and changing schemes significantly as long as he is competent.

Rating: 7/10

Lions

This is an odd one. The Lions have surely been a team better than their record indicates, as they have played some of the better teams in the NFL really close. The only game truly out of reach was the Patriots game. Coming out of the bye last week, the Lions led the Dolphins game for 47 minutes, but were unable to grind it out in the 4th quarter, something that has become a theme this season. The defense was still awful last week, but there were some coaching reshuffles that may cause a step-up in play. Overall, it is astounding that this defensive coordinator still has a job though, because he is leading the WORST team in NFL history when looking at EPA (expected points added) per drive on Defense.

Regardless, the Lions are finally getting healthier on defense and may help improve their play. With how good this offense has been (when St Brown and Swift are healthy), the defense only has to be medoicre for the Lions to win a lot of games. I think they are due for some positive regression, and the Packers have been all over the place.

Still, it will always be difficult to trust the Lions.

User Rating: 6.5/10

Jaguars

The Jaguars lost last weekend despite a career performance from star running back Etienne. A lot of that blame can be put on Lawrence, who struggled greatly with an elite Broncos secondary. Luckily for Lawrence though, this Raiders secondary is one of the worst in the league. This game will be heavily dependent on how he plays, as the Raiders are 6th in yards per rush allowed but 31st in QBR allowed. The Raiders have one of the worst secondaries in the league with no pass rush either, so if Lawrence can get going early then Jaguars should win.

The Jaguars quietly have a top 10 defense in the league. They are 5th in EPA allowed per drive, 10th in QBR allowed, and 5th in rushing yards per game. They will be facing a Raiders offense that came off a bye week and still got shutout. Now the only way that is even possible is a ridiculously incompetent coach, which McDaniels is proving to be (just like every other Patriots coordinator turned coach!). I like this as an upset, as the Raiders look down, and their playoff hopes are already all but squashed.

Rating: 8/10

Bengals

On the surface, it looks like the Panthers have some matchup advantages in this game. When digging deeper though, I think the opposite is true.

The Bengals allow the 31st most sacks in the league, and that is with an semi-elusive Burrow. The Panthers have sent an extra rusher on passing plays 33% of the time, a number only beat by 4 other teams. Luckily for Burrow though, the only consistent pass rusher has been Brian Burns. Burrow should be elusive enough to get away from the pressure that Carolina inevitably brings, and as a result there should be more open receivers down field. Also, I believe last week was more of an anomaly than expectations without Chase. Having an extra week to practice with the new configurated offense should help, and Burrow will surely be angry for redemption.

Rating:7/10

Chiefs (Spread)

TBC Sunday Night article

Model Picks

User Picks

Model Picks Spreadsheet