The model seems to really like the Falcons, and the underlying stats seem to paint a picture that agrees. Carolina is 28th in rushing yards allowed per game at 139. They will be going against an Atlanta team that is 4th in the league at 163 yards per game. Carolina is also fresh of an absolutely embarrassing loss to the Bengals in which they allowed a career day for Joe Mixon, one of the (generally agreed that he is) less talented backs in the NFL. Arthur Smith, who used to lead the Titans daunted offense, has come up with ways to scheme around having a rushing QB and led to a career resurgence for Coradelle Patterson. So, the Falcons should have quite an easy time rushing the ball. Atlanta also has a 62% red zone scoring percentage for TDs, good for 8th in the league. Meanwhile Carolina is 22nd in Red Zone TDs allowed. So, the Falcons should not only have no trouble moving the ball, but they should also have no problem punching it in.

On the other side, the Panthers have one of (if not the) worst QB in the league, and it is questionable who will even start between the non-desirable options of Mayfield and PJ Walker. Even at home, the Panthers average only 19 pts per game, which ranks 23th in the NFL. Because their offense is so bad, their defense is constantly on the field and they rank dead last in time of possession. So if Atlanta is able to get their run game going as expected, then the Panthers defense will be on the field for a long time against a great Falcons running team, which is not a good combination.

The turnover margin also heavily favors the Falcons, so there isn’t much data that favors the Panthers. The only slight point of concern is the Falcons starting guard just got placed on IR, but he was out vs the Chargers and they had no problem running the ball in that game.

Overall Rating: 9/10

5.3U: Falcons -2.5 Spread (-120)

0.85U: Falcons, Chiefs ML Parlay (+110)

0.85U: Saints, Falcons ML Parlay (+204)

1U: Falcons, Cowboys ML Parlay (+144)

1.2U: Falcons, 49ers ML Parlay (+124)

1.5U: Falcons, Eagles ML Parlay (+105)

0.2U: Seahawks, Falcons, Eagles, Cowboys ML Parlay