Apologies for the late post on the results, I have a special “deep dive” going into the model’s lack of success (to put it nicely!) this year at the end of this article.

Record: 1-6

Parlay Record: 0-1

Round Robin Record: 0-0-1 (counting as a tie since the return was -0.2U)

Total Units : 19.8

Total Profit/(Loss): (14.4)

ROIv1 = -72.7%

ROIv2 =-28.8%

Annual Results:

Total Record: 36-39-3 (round robin/parlay will be considered either win/loss/tie for annual record)

Total Units: 104.6

Units Won/Lost: -19.2

ROIv1: -18.4%

ROIv2: -38.4%

Disclaimer: This is not an “out”/excuse but this year seems to be a off-nominal year and I attempted to dive into the data to figure out why. The NFL has had a record 7 starting quarterbacks (and its only Week 11!) that have been injured at some point this season, and a further 4 that were benched due to poor performance. The previous record for number of starting QBs has been shattered by 6 (not counting rest after playoff positioning has been secured) and its only Week 11! Even though the model does attempt to take into consideration injuries, the annual data used by the model is mixing and matching data based on multiple QBs playing, often times when the drop off is significant. Out of the 39 incorrect picks, 13 of them include teams which have their starting QB permanently out for the season with injury (i.e. Kirk Cousins, Joe Burrow, Daniel Jones, etc.). This is a whopping 33%! Furthermore, another 5 picks are due to QB injuries on weeks that the backup was starting in place of the temporarily injured starter or coming in for >2Q after an in-game QB injury (i.e. PJ walker in Week 10 coming in the 2Q, Bagent starting for Fields in Week 10, etc.). This comes out as a total of 46% of the incorrect picks beingdue to QB injuries! Obviously injuries happen every year in the NFL, but the QB injuries this year have been historic and caused a significant drop in the model’s performance. The good news is over time the model should have enough data on the backup QBs to improve it’s accuracy. Again, this is not an excuse for it’s poor performance but moreso reasoning behind its negative performance this year. I still believe it will end the season on a good note, so stay tuned!